AP-Pew Poll Shows Interest in Mid-Term Election Higher Than 1994
Generally, the higher the interest in an election, the higher the turnout, and when the interest soars on the opposition side, woe to the party in power.
With Iraq, North Korea, a feeling that the living standards of the middle class are deteriorating and now the Foley scandal, it should come as no surprise that President George W. Bush's administration, and Republicans in general, are not faring too well in the forthcoming election.
But the new poll fleshes that out by reporting that politics as a subject of conversation is at its highest in more than a decade.
Of 1,503 registered voters interviewed, 70% say they are talking politics with their family and friends, 43% say they are talking it at work, and 28% say they are talking it at church.
There is a definite residue of past contested elections in Florida and Ohio, both won by Bush, that is shown in the fact that 45% of the Democrats surveyed are very confident their votes will be counted this November, and only 30% of African-Americans.
Still, the survey reports, Democratic voter interest, driven by anger over the war and optimism Democrats can win in November, is much higher than normal, while Republican interest is about the same.
Something could still happen before the election to change views, but the time is growing short. I expect a Democratic victory of startling proportions.